Jock Finlayson is executive vice president and chief policy officer of the Business Council of BC. (Submitted)

Jock Finlayson is executive vice president and chief policy officer of the Business Council of BC. (Submitted)

COLUMN: B.C.’s biggest economic and business stories of 2019

Jock Finlayson is executive vice president and chief policy officer of the Business Council of BC

As the new year beckons, it’s a good time to reflect on the major economic and business stories of the year that’s about to end. To keep the task manageable, the focus here is limited to Canada and B.C.

One surprising development in 2019 was the return to a period of falling interest rates.

When the year began, most economic forecasters were expecting both the Bank of Canada’s policy rate and market-based interest rates to continue creeping higher, on the heels of earlier rate increases in 2018.

Instead, the interest rates facing savers and borrowers dropped over the last half of 2019 – not just in Canada, but in the U.S. too.

As of late November, the market yield on 10-year bonds issued by the federal government stood at a paltry 1.6 per cent.

With inflation running around two per cent, this means buyers of 10-year government bonds are locking in a negative return after inflation. That would appear to be an unappetizing investment. Yet there is no shortage of demand for government bonds yielding microscopic returns.

READ MORE: Bank of Canada holds interest rate, warns economy’s resilience to be ‘tested’

Another notable story in 2019 was the continued troubles afflicting the Western Canadian energy sector, above all the oil and gas industry that accounts for up to one-fifth of Canada’s exports in a typical year.

While the Canadian industry has been innovating and cutting costs in an environment of lower prices, escalating government-imposed regulatory burdens, stalled pipeline development, and rising oil and gas production in the United States mean the overall energy landscape has shifted in ways that disadvantage Canada.

The result is tens of billions of dollars of foregone economic value because of persistent price discounts on Western Canadian oil vis-à-vis oil produced in the U.S., significant job losses in the Alberta energy patch, investment outflows to the U.S., and the departure from Canada of at least one major energy company head office – Encana – with more likely to follow.

All in all, energy policy and recent energy investment patterns show Canada in an unflattering light.

KEEP READING: Encana moves headquarters from Calgary to U.S., changes name to Ovintiv

For B.C., the crisis gripping the forest industry is clearly top of mind.

More than a dozen lumber manufacturing plants in the interior and north have stopped operating – some permanently. Thousands of well-paying jobs have disappeared, and more are at risk. Lumber production and export shipments are down significantly compared to 2018 levels, helping to drive a decline in B.C.’s total exports.

The NDP government has responded by providing some assistance to some laid-off forest workers and forestry-dependent communities. But it seems curiously indifferent to the long-term economic health of the province’s most important export industry.

Policy-makers are overlooking the fact that a viable B.C. forest industry depends on the presence of strong companies with the size and scale to withstand market cycles and invest in developing new markets and in keeping existing mills efficient.

It is troubling to watch the leading firms redeploying capital and shifting management attention to other provinces and the U.S.

READ MORE: Fewer trees, higher costs blamed for devastating downturn in B.C. forestry

Finally, there is housing. The past year brought a sharp decline followed by a jump in home sales, as the market adjusted to an onslaught of new and higher provincial taxes, the mortgage “stress test” introduced by the federal government, and other policy measures designed to cool demand and dampen speculation in the Lower Mainland, Greater Victoria, and the Kelowna area.

Housing prices have dropped markedly at the expensive end of the market, but much less so for the average property.

Homebuilding and housing starts in 2019 have been surprisingly resilient, considering the contemporaneous unwinding of froth in the market.

Some industry experts are forecasting a sizable decline in housing starts in 2020, as developers shelve or delay projects against the backdrop of recent policy measures. If starts do plunge, that will detract from economic growth in B.C. in 2020 and beyond.

But with rock-bottom interest rates and a rapidly growing population fueled by record levels of immigration, the demand for housing in “urban B.C.” is expected to remain elevated – a situation that should continue to support the development of new housing supply over the medium-term.

Jock Finlayson is executive vice president and chief policy officer of the Business Council of British Columbia

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

A new Fraser Valley food hub in Abbotsford will include shared kitchen space that can be accessed by small and medium-sized businesses. (Stock photo by Robyn Wright from Pixabay)
Almost $2M to support new Fraser Valley food hub in Abbotsford

Project being developed by District of Mission and Mission Community Skills Centre

....
Dao Tran declares for Abbotsford byelection

Abby Bike Shop owner announces his bid for vacant councillor seat

....
Abbotsford’s Tanya Loewen advances to quarterfinal round of Inked cover girl search

Van Bree Tattoo artist can advance to the semi-final round with a win, voting runs till Thursday

Nietzsche, the ginger cat who worked at The Book Man, poses for a photo on Sept. 7, 2017. He died on Monday, Feb. 22, 2021. (Jenna Hauck/ Chilliwack Progress file)
Famous Chilliwack bookstore cat, Nietzsche, dies

‘Every single thing you could want in a cat, Nietzsche embodied,’ says Amber Price

FILE – A COVID-19 vaccine being prepared. (Olivia Sullivan/Sound Publishing)
B.C. seniors 80 years and older to get COVID vaccine details over next 2 weeks: Henry

Province is expanding vaccine workforce as officials ramp up age-based rollout

Dr. Bonnie Henry talk about the next steps in B.C.'s COVID-19 Immunization Plan during a press conference at Legislature in Victoria, B.C., on Friday, January 22, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito
456 new COVID-19 cases in B.C., 2 deaths

Since January 2020, 78,278 have tested positive for the novel coronavirus in B.C.

Photograph By @KAYLAXANDERSON
VIDEO: Lynx grabs lunch in Kamloops

A lynx surprises a group of ducks and picks one off for lunch

(Black Press Media file photo)
B.C. residents can reserve provincial camp sites starting March 8

B.C. residents get priority access to camping reservations in province

Travis Selje with Rex, the family dog he got to enjoy for the final six months of his life. (Submitted photo)
Defence says evidence ‘compelling, overwhelming’ to acquit Surrey woman in deadly crash

Epileptic seizure caused fatal crash that killed Travis Selje, lawyer argues in final submissions

Two women were arrested in Nanaimo for refusing to wear masks and causing disturbance on a BC Ferries vessel. (File photo)
B.C. ferry passengers arrested and fined for disturbance, refusing to wear masks

Police said woman threatened their pensions in Feb. 21 incident aboard Nanaimo-bound boat

When his owner had knee surgery, Kevin, 2, was able to continue to go for walks thanks to volunteers from Elder Dog Canada. (Contributed photo)
B.C. woman has nothing but praise for Elder Dog Canada

National organization has a fleet of volunteer walkers ready, but needs more clients to serve

Justin Morissette is still recovering from the injuries sustained in the altercation. He is not yet able to walk without assistance. (Justin Morissette, Twitter)
B.C. man suing city and police over violent altercation with anti-LGBTQ preacher

Justin Morissette argues police knew the threat the preacher posed, and failed to keep the peace

Cannabis bought in British Columbia (Ashley Wadhwani/Black Press Media)
Is it time to start thinking about greener ways to package cannabis?

Packaging suppliers are still figuring eco-friendly and affordable packaging options that fit the mandates of Cannabis Regulations

A male customer without a face mask is seen inside a Burnaby Canadian Tire amidst an altercation with store security and staff members. (Video/Screen grab)
VIDEO: Man arrested after allegedly punching Burnaby Canadian Tire staff over mask rule

Mounties received reports Monday of a customer having punched more than one employee

Most Read