The updated flu vaccine may work better than last year's did against the H3N2 strain but public health experts once again expect it to underperform.

Flu vaccine to underperform again

Epidemiologist expects less than ideal protection against resurgent H3N2 flu strain but better than 'zero' last year

There are signs the flu season may hit B.C. early and hard and public health officials are warning they expect the flu vaccine to again be less effective than they’d like.

The most dangerous influenza type for vulnerable people is the H3N2 strain that was dominant in last year’s severe flu season.

But because of a genetic mismatch, the vaccine provided last year was useless in warding off H3N2, according to B.C. Centre for Disease Control epidemiologist Dr. Danuta Skowronski.

That component of the vaccine was replaced on orders of the World Health Organization, but preliminary evidence suggests the new version will still not be a good match against H3N2, falling well short of the 60 to 70 per cent protection rates against other flu strains in most years.

“I believe it’s going to be better than last year – in other words I don’t think it’s going to be zero – but by how much, I can’t say,” Skowronski said.

She said there’s good reason to hope it may be 40 to 60 per cent effective overall, adding she continues to recommend the vaccine, particularly for those more vulnerable.

“If you are a high-risk person, especially with heart and lung conditions or elderly, even if you’re looking at vaccine protection of 30, 40 or 50 per cent, you’re still better off than if you’re unvaccinated.”

Flu vaccine will be widely available by November and may be offered sooner than that in high-risk settings like residential care homes.

Epidemiologists had expected H3N2 would be less prevalent this year, with more of a mix of H1N1 and influenza B strains also in circulation, making the mismatch less of a worry.

But Skowronski noted there have already been two H3N2 outbreaks in long-term care homes in B.C.’s Vancouver Coastal health region – one in the summer and another in late September.

“To have had outbreak activity already in the summer is very unusual,” she said. “We are monitoring that closely for the possibility of an early season.”

Apart from last year, B.C. hasn’t seen flu outbreaks this early since 2009.

Last year, with H3N2 widespread and the mismatched vaccine offering no defence, there were 175 outbreaks in long-term care homes.

That was the highest number in more than a decade and twice as many outbreaks as the previous peak year of 2012.

Skowronski acknowledged the mismatch problems threaten to erode public confidence in the flu vaccine but hopes vulnerable patients are not dissuaded.

“For me, it would be a double tragedy, frankly, if coming out of last season our high-risk people lost faith and did not get the vaccine.”

While influenza is a “miserable” illness, Skowronski said it’s not life-threatening to healthy people, for whom vaccination is still encouraged but a matter of personal preference.

About one-third of B.C. residents typically get the flu vaccine each year.

H3N2 vaccines have consistently underperformed in recent years.

Skowronski said more work is needed to try to solve the challenges of accurately gauging the vaccine’s fit against the virus in the lab, and in effectively reproducing a well-matched vaccine without losing its properties.

Also requiring more research, she said, is emerging evidence suggesting repeated use of the vaccine by a given patient diminishes its effectiveness for them in future years.

While the flu vaccine may not perform as well for someone who also received it the previous year as it would for a first-time user, Skowronski said, they’ll still be better off than unvaccinated people.

Her team is trying to recruit more B.C. doctors and nurses to help track the spread of flu strains this year and monitor the effectiveness of this year’s vaccine.

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Stock photo
Pair’s lawsuit dismissed against Fraser Valley soccer association and churches

Judge in Abbotsford calls claims against 14 defendants ‘an abuse of the court’s process’

RBSS students decorate a parking stall at the school as part of the Paint the Parking Lot project. (Facebook)
2021 Robert Bateman grads ‘Paint the Parking Lot’

RBSS students decorate Abbotsford school’s parking lot for a good cause

The Mennonite Heritage Museum on Clearbrook Road in Abbotsford.
Mennonite Historical Society in Abbotsford seeks input for storytelling project

Digital project asks for stories about living during COVID-19’s ‘changing times’

The city is considering easing the requirements for neighbourhoods to get traffic calming devices like raised crosswalks installed on their local roads.
PHOTO: City of Abbotsford agenda package
City may make it easier for Abbotsford residents to get speed humps on local roads

City staff suggests easing criteria for roads to qualify for traffic-calming measures

Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry updates the COVID-19 situation, B.C. legislature, Oct. 26, 2020. (B.C. government)
B.C.’s COVID-19 case count jumps by 287, another senior home outbreak

Two more deaths recorded, community outbreak in Okanagan

An untitled Emily Carr painting of Finlayson Point was donated to the Art Gallery of Greater Victoria by brothers Ian and Andrew Burchett. The painting had been in their family for several decades. (Courtesy of the Art Gallery of Greater Victoria)
Never before seen painting by famed B.C. artist Emily Carr gifted to Victoria gallery

Painting among several donated to Art Gallery of Greater Victoria

The B.C. Centre for Disease control is telling people to keep an eye out for the poisonous death cap mushroom, which thrives in fall weather conditions. (Paul Kroeger/BCCDC)
Highly poisonous death cap mushroom discovered in Comox

This marks first discovery on Vancouver Island outside Greater Victoria area

100 Mile Conservation officer Joel Kline gingerly holds an injured but very much alive bald eagle after extracting him from a motorist’s minivan. (Photo submitted)
Rescued bald eagle that came to life in B.C. man’s car had lead poisoning

Bird is on medication and recovering in rehab centre

Janet Austin, lieutenant governor of B.C., was presented with the first poppy of the Royal Canadian Legion’s 2020 Poppy Campaign on Wednesday. (Kendra Crighton/News Staff)
PHOTOS: B.C. Lieutenant Governor receives first poppy to kick off 2020 campaign

Janet Austin ‘honour and a privileged’ to receive the poppy

Join Black Press Media and Do Some Good

Pay it Forward program supports local businesses in their community giving

Premier-elect John Horgan and cabinet ministers are sworn in for the first time at Government House in Victoria, July 18, 2017. (Arnold Lim/Black Press)
Pandemic payments have to wait for B.C. vote count, swearing-in

Small businesses advised to apply even if they don’t qualify

Is it time to start thinking about greener ways to package cannabis?

Packaging suppliers are still figuring eco-friendly and affordable packaging options that fit the mandates of Cannabis Regulations

Court of Appeal for British Columbia in Vancouver. (File photo: Tom Zytaruk)
Sex offender who viewed underage girls as slaves has prohibitions cut from 20 to 10 years

Appeal court reviewed the case of Kyler Bryan David Williams, 29

Most Read