Abbotsford voters – or at least a certain chunk of them – could end up playing a key role in who ends up running the country after next week’s election.
Federal races in the city have largely been landslides in recent years, but the first election in the newly created riding of Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon in 2015 led to a narrow win for Liberal Jati Sidhu in the final race to be called across the country.
While a triumph for Sidhu and the Liberals, that single result didn’t have a massive impact on the country as a whole. But this year could be a different story, says Hamish Telford, University of the Fraser Valley political science professor.
The Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon riding is huge, stretching from Ashcroft and Lillooet in the north and south to Mission and Abbotsford. Thousands of Abbotsford residents who live north of Maclure/Upper Maclure and Bateman roads will vote in the riding. And their ballots could also have a profound impact on the future of the country.
Current polls suggest that the possibility of a Parliamentary “mess” is possible after all the votes are counted Monday. With the Greens and the NDP polling strongly, and neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives pulling away from the other, a minority Parliament seems the most likely outcome. And it’s possible that just a few seats could determine who has enough power to form the next government.
“B.C. could be a determining factor in the final outcome, tilting the balance one way or the other,” Telford told The News. “I think that Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon is a seat that’s up for grabs.”
The Conservatives have reason to think the seat is flippable, Telford said. But the Liberals are also campaigning hard – and spending considerably. Sidhu has spent twice as much as all other local candidates combined on Facebook – the only advertising area for which figures are available.
Although Telford said he would personally prefer a clear result from Monday’s vote, he said the political science side of him sees a potential hung Parliament as a “great teaching opportunity.”
He noted that although Canada has a Parliamentary system, its political culture is “essentially presidential,” with elections and voters increasingly focused on the leaders.
He said he spoke at a local school where students suggested that the upcoming election was to elect a prime minister. And Conservative Andrew Scheer said Thursday he thought the party that wins the most seats should get to govern.
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