A container ship docking at Deltaport. Port Metro Vancouver has released its Port 2050 outlook for the next two to four decades.

A container ship docking at Deltaport. Port Metro Vancouver has released its Port 2050 outlook for the next two to four decades.

Port wary of roadblocks to growth

Two 'frightening' scenarios in future outlook for Port Metro Vancouver

Port Metro Vancouver now recognizes it might face low-growth scenarios where the massive infrastructure upgrades underway to move goods through the region may not pay off, but it so far continues to bet on stronger trade growth.

The authority unveiled its new Port 2050 vision Friday, predicting what may lay ahead over the next 20 to 40 years.

It includes two low-growth scenarios that president and CEO Robin Silvester calls “frightening.”

One dubbed “Local Fortress” details how local residents’ choice to become a “lifestyle region” throttles Metro Vancouver’s potential as a global hub, compounding the damage of a slow global economy.

That scenario ends with a region attractive to tourists, retirees and the affluent, the report says, but one that pushes away industry and jobs at a cost to the region’s character, vibrancy and diversity.

A second scenario is dubbed “Missed the Boat”, where supply chain problems and lack of community support for the port leaves Metro Vancouver unable to fully tap growth in emerging markets. Industry then opts to use other ports.

More likely, according to Silvester, is a third “Rising Tide” scenario of continued growth but one that is more volatile because of the increasing challenge of climate change and “resource wars” over commodities.

It anticipates a one-metre rise in sea level by 2040 and temperatures four degrees warmer, as the impacts of climate change arrive decades sooner than expected.

He said “Rising Tide” may be just a precursor on the way to a fourth outlook called “The Great Transition” – a rapid shift to a post-industrial, post-carbon world.

It anticipates a global carbon tax and triple-bottom line accounting to reflect the economy and social needs. And it still anticipates a relevant port because rising oil prices make shipping and rail more competitive than trucking.

Gateway critics have long argued port expansion harms the region’s residents, its environment and food security.

They accuse the port of driving the Lower Mainland’s freeway and bridge building binge and buying up farmland for new terminals and warehousing.

The port authority projects container traffic through B.C.’s West Coast will double over the next 10 to 15 years and nearly triple by 2030.

It has proposed a second three-berth container terminal at Deltaport to handle the expected growth.

Silvester, in a Nov. 25 speech to the Vancouver Board of Trade, gave no indication the Port 2050 findings will alter the port’s present course.

But he warned the financial crisis in Europe means some of the changes and volatility the port expects in the decades ahead may come sooner than predicted.

He stressed the importance of the 129,000 port-related jobs in the Lower Mainland in weathering any economic storm and said policies and programs may need to be revised to preserve and expand those jobs.

It may be time for a single West Coast port authority, he said, that takes in both Port Metro Vancouver and the Port of Prince Rupert to ensure the two compete with U.S. ports but not against each other.

He also repeated the port’s concern about conflict over land use and the declining supply of industrial land in the region.

“Perhaps it’s not just an Agricultural Land Reserve that’s needed in British Columbia, but a Jobs Land Reserve,” Silvester said. “A reserve where land that is critical to the jobs we have, and the new jobs that we will require over the next 30 to 40 years, allows them to grow and flourish.”

Just Posted

AHL president and CEO Scott Howson believes the new Abbotsford franchise is off to a strong early start. (AHL photo)
AHL president: ‘Tremendous success’ selling season ticket deposits for Abbotsford franchise

President and CEO Scott Howson optimistic about new Vancouver Canucks affiliate in Abbotsford

Stock photo by LEEROY Agency from Pixabay
Drop-in vaccination clinics slated in Abbotsford for construction workers

Among three sites in Lower Mainland holding no-appointment clinics in June and July

A CH-149 Cormorant from 442 Transport and Rescue Squadron out of CFB Comox on a training exercise in Chilliwack on June 16, 2021. (William Snow photo)
VIDEO: Military search and rescue training in Chilliwack Wednesday

CH-149 Cormorant and CC-115 Buffalo from CFB Comox participated in downed aircraft rescue simulation

The committee to name the new Eagle Mountain elementary school will now not reveal the top three school names until September. (File photo)
Committee to name new Abbotsford elementary school needs more time

Top three Eagle Mountain elementary school names will now be narrowed down by September

Linnea Labbee outside the Chilliwack Law Courts on April 1, 2021 on day 16 of her trial in BC Supreme Court. Labbee was convicted April 12 for the fatal hit-and-run of 78-year-old Fourghozaman Firoozian on Dec. 1, 2016. (Paul Henderson/ Chilliwack Progress)
Sentencing hearing scheduled for 72-year-old Chilliwack woman found guilty in fatal hit-and-run

Crown will seek jail time for Linnea Labbee who struck and killed 78-year-old woman in 2016

People line up to get their COVID-19 vaccine at a vaccination centre, Thursday, June 10, 2021 in Montreal. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz
Vaccines, low COVID case counts increase Father’s Day hope, but risk is still there

Expert says people will have to do their own risk calculus before popping in on Papa

Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry outlines B.C.’s COVID-19 restart plan, May 25, 2021, including larger gatherings and a possible easing of mandatory masks on July 1. (B.C. government photo)
B.C. records 120 new COVID-19 cases, second vaccines accelerating

Lower Pfizer deliveries for early July, Moderna shipments up

A Heffley Creek peacock caught not one - but two - lifts on a logging truck this month. (Photo submitted)
Heffley Creek-area peacock hops logging trucks in search of love

Peacock hitched two lifts in the past month

The Calgary skyline is seen on Friday, Sept. 15, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
2 deaths from COVID-19 Delta variant in Alberta, 1 patient was fully immunized

Kerry Williamson with Alberta Health Services says the patients likely acquired the virus in the hospital

B.C. Public Safety Minister Mike Farnworth and Attorney General David Eby attend opening of the first government-run B.C. Cannabis Store, Kamloops, Oct. 19, 2018. (B.C. government)
B.C. government to allow home cannabis delivery starting July 15

Added convenience expected to persuade buyers to ‘go legal’

The first suspension bridge is the tallest in Canada, with a second suspension bridge just below it. The two are connected by a trail that’s just over 1 km. (Claire Palmer photo)
PHOTOS: The highest suspension bridges in Canada just opened in B.C.

The Skybridge in Golden allows visitors to take in views standing at 130 and 80 metres

BC Green Party leader and Cowichan Valley MLA Sonia Furstenau introduced a petition to the provincial legislature on Thursday calling for the end of old-growth logging in the province. (File photo)
BC Green leader Furstenau introduces old-growth logging petition

Party calls for the end of old-growth logging as protests in Fairy Creek continue

B.C. Premier John Horgan leaves his office for a news conference in the legislature rose garden, June 3, 2020. (B.C. government photo)
B.C. premier roasted for office budget, taxing COVID-19 benefits

Youth addiction law that triggered election hasn’t appeared

Cannabis bought in British Columbia (Ashley Wadhwani/Black Press Media)
Is it time to start thinking about greener ways to package cannabis?

Packaging suppliers are still figuring eco-friendly and affordable packaging options that fit the mandates of Cannabis Regulations

Most Read